unit 01 grader runs nightly rules +5% / 2h / no stop / posted T+1 (next morning) posted Oct 22, 2026 at 07:00 EDT

The Graded Tapeby Verbatim · established July 13, 2026

Every signal our system fires in real time that can be entered under the rules is graded by a machine against one set of rules fixed before the day begins, and published the next morning, including the misses.

what this is
  • Lookout, a custom neural network ensemble built by one trader, reads the market minute by minute.
  • When it predicts a +5% move, the signal alerts in real time.
  • Overnight, a machine grades every signal that could have been entered under fixed rules and posts the results here by morning, wins and misses alike.
  • The letters behind it are at Verbatim Sigma.

posted Oct 22, 2026 at 07:00 EDT / fully automated

training runs · six members walking forward
data through Oct 21, 2026 · re-drawn nightly0.300.402023-01-182023-10-122024-07-112025-04-072026-01-262026-10-20training window (first test date)precision @ 1% FPRwindow first tested 2023-01-18: Variant A 0.281 / Variant B 0.282 / Variant C 0.275 / Variant D 0.281 / Logistic 0.268window first tested 2023-01-30: Variant A 0.359 / Variant B 0.357 / Variant C 0.354 / Variant D 0.358 / Logistic 0.333window first tested 2023-02-09: Variant A 0.356 / Variant B 0.357 / Variant C 0.355 / Variant D 0.356 / Logistic 0.336window first tested 2023-02-22: Variant A 0.346 / Variant B 0.348 / Variant C 0.343 / Variant D 0.346 / Logistic 0.326window first tested 2023-03-06: Variant A 0.343 / Variant B 0.346 / Variant C 0.340 / Variant D 0.343 / Logistic 0.321window first tested 2023-03-16: Variant A 0.341 / Variant B 0.342 / Variant C 0.340 / Variant D 0.342 / Logistic 0.318window first tested 2023-03-28: Variant A 0.334 / Variant B 0.335 / Variant C 0.334 / Variant D 0.335 / Logistic 0.312window first tested 2023-04-10: Variant A 0.332 / Variant B 0.335 / Variant C 0.332 / Variant D 0.333 / Logistic 0.312window first tested 2023-04-20: Variant A 0.340 / Variant B 0.344 / Variant C 0.341 / Variant D 0.341 / Logistic 0.321window first tested 2023-05-02: Variant A 0.342 / Variant B 0.345 / Variant C 0.344 / Variant D 0.344 / Logistic 0.325window first tested 2023-05-12: Variant A 0.347 / Variant B 0.348 / Variant C 0.348 / Variant D 0.348 / Logistic 0.328window first tested 2023-05-24: Variant A 0.353 / Variant B 0.353 / Variant C 0.355 / Variant D 0.354 / Logistic 0.334window first tested 2023-06-06: Variant A 0.354 / Variant B 0.351 / Variant C 0.354 / Variant D 0.353 / Logistic 0.334window first tested 2023-06-16: Variant A 0.355 / Variant B 0.353 / Variant C 0.355 / Variant D 0.353 / Logistic 0.335window first tested 2023-06-29: Variant A 0.357 / Variant B 0.353 / Variant C 0.356 / Variant D 0.354 / Logistic 0.336window first tested 2023-07-12: Variant A 0.351 / Variant B 0.344 / Variant C 0.350 / Variant D 0.347 / Logistic 0.327window first tested 2023-07-24: Variant A 0.342 / Variant B 0.335 / Variant C 0.341 / Variant D 0.337 / Logistic 0.317window first tested 2023-08-03: Variant A 0.331 / Variant B 0.324 / Variant C 0.330 / Variant D 0.327 / Logistic 0.307window first tested 2023-08-15: Variant A 0.325 / Variant B 0.320 / Variant C 0.326 / Variant D 0.323 / Logistic 0.305window first tested 2023-08-25: Variant A 0.320 / Variant B 0.316 / Variant C 0.322 / Variant D 0.320 / Logistic 0.303window first tested 2023-09-07: Variant A 0.323 / Variant B 0.319 / Variant C 0.325 / Variant D 0.323 / Logistic 0.306window first tested 2023-09-19: Variant A 0.320 / Variant B 0.318 / Variant C 0.322 / Variant D 0.323 / Logistic 0.306window first tested 2023-09-29: Variant A 0.327 / Variant B 0.322 / Variant C 0.327 / Variant D 0.328 / Logistic 0.312window first tested 2023-10-11: Variant A 0.329 / Variant B 0.325 / Variant C 0.330 / Variant D 0.332 / Logistic 0.315window first tested 2023-10-23: Variant A 0.336 / Variant B 0.332 / Variant C 0.337 / Variant D 0.340 / Logistic 0.323window first tested 2023-11-02: Variant A 0.334 / Variant B 0.330 / Variant C 0.335 / Variant D 0.337 / Logistic 0.317window first tested 2023-11-14: Variant A 0.333 / Variant B 0.330 / Variant C 0.334 / Variant D 0.337 / Logistic 0.316window first tested 2023-11-27: Variant A 0.339 / Variant B 0.335 / Variant C 0.340 / Variant D 0.342 / Logistic 0.324window first tested 2023-12-07: Variant A 0.348 / Variant B 0.342 / Variant C 0.347 / Variant D 0.350 / Logistic 0.330window first tested 2023-12-19: Variant A 0.356 / Variant B 0.348 / Variant C 0.355 / Variant D 0.359 / Logistic 0.338window first tested 2024-01-02: Variant A 0.366 / Variant B 0.358 / Variant C 0.358 / Variant D 0.368 / Logistic 0.347window first tested 2024-01-12: Variant A 0.359 / Variant B 0.354 / Variant C 0.351 / Variant D 0.360 / Logistic 0.342window first tested 2024-01-25: Variant A 0.365 / Variant B 0.361 / Variant C 0.357 / Variant D 0.366 / Logistic 0.350window first tested 2024-02-06: Variant A 0.376 / Variant B 0.370 / Variant C 0.367 / Variant D 0.373 / Logistic 0.361window first tested 2024-02-16: Variant A 0.384 / Variant B 0.381 / Variant C 0.375 / Variant D 0.381 / Logistic 0.370window first tested 2024-02-29: Variant A 0.386 / Variant B 0.383 / Variant C 0.377 / Variant D 0.382 / Logistic 0.371window first tested 2024-03-12: Variant A 0.389 / Variant B 0.387 / Variant C 0.381 / Variant D 0.384 / Logistic 0.373window first tested 2024-03-22: Variant A 0.388 / Variant B 0.388 / Variant C 0.385 / Variant D 0.383 / Logistic 0.372window first tested 2024-04-04: Variant A 0.391 / Variant B 0.389 / Variant C 0.389 / Variant D 0.387 / Logistic 0.374window first tested 2024-04-16: Variant A 0.400 / Variant B 0.392 / Variant C 0.397 / Variant D 0.396 / Logistic 0.381window first tested 2024-04-26: Variant A 0.400 / Variant B 0.391 / Variant C 0.397 / Variant D 0.397 / Logistic 0.379window first tested 2024-05-08: Variant A 0.391 / Variant B 0.382 / Variant C 0.387 / Variant D 0.388 / Logistic 0.369window first tested 2024-05-20: Variant A 0.389 / Variant B 0.377 / Variant C 0.384 / Variant D 0.385 / Logistic 0.371window first tested 2024-05-31: Variant A 0.389 / Variant B 0.379 / Variant C 0.387 / Variant D 0.387 / Logistic 0.375window first tested 2024-06-12: Variant A 0.386 / Variant B 0.377 / Variant C 0.384 / Variant D 0.385 / Logistic 0.375window first tested 2024-06-25: Variant A 0.387 / Variant B 0.378 / Variant C 0.387 / Variant D 0.386 / Logistic 0.378window first tested 2024-07-08: Variant A 0.381 / Variant B 0.374 / Variant C 0.382 / Variant D 0.379 / Logistic 0.371window first tested 2024-07-18: Variant A 0.375 / Variant B 0.371 / Variant C 0.377 / Variant D 0.373 / Logistic 0.364window first tested 2024-07-30: Variant A 0.379 / Variant B 0.375 / Variant C 0.382 / Variant D 0.376 / Logistic 0.372window first tested 2024-08-09: Variant A 0.384 / Variant B 0.378 / Variant C 0.385 / Variant D 0.379 / Logistic 0.374window first tested 2024-08-21: Variant A 0.376 / Variant B 0.373 / Variant C 0.378 / Variant D 0.372 / Logistic 0.365window first tested 2024-09-03: Variant A 0.373 / Variant B 0.369 / Variant C 0.374 / Variant D 0.369 / Logistic 0.359window first tested 2024-09-13: Variant A 0.373 / Variant B 0.364 / Variant C 0.373 / Variant D 0.367 / Logistic 0.358window first tested 2024-09-25: Variant A 0.366 / Variant B 0.364 / Variant C 0.370 / Variant D 0.366 / Logistic 0.358window first tested 2024-10-07: Variant A 0.367 / Variant B 0.366 / Variant C 0.371 / Variant D 0.369 / Logistic 0.362window first tested 2024-10-17: Variant A 0.375 / Variant B 0.374 / Variant C 0.377 / Variant D 0.375 / Logistic 0.368window first tested 2024-10-29: Variant A 0.378 / Variant B 0.378 / Variant C 0.382 / Variant D 0.382 / Logistic 0.372window first tested 2024-11-08: Variant A 0.376 / Variant B 0.376 / Variant C 0.381 / Variant D 0.380 / Logistic 0.373window first tested 2024-11-20: Variant A 0.379 / Variant B 0.377 / Variant C 0.383 / Variant D 0.382 / Logistic 0.375window first tested 2024-12-03: Variant A 0.385 / Variant B 0.388 / Variant C 0.389 / Variant D 0.390 / Logistic 0.383window first tested 2024-12-13: Variant A 0.391 / Variant B 0.388 / Variant C 0.390 / Variant D 0.391 / Logistic 0.383window first tested 2024-12-26: Variant A 0.404 / Variant B 0.396 / Variant C 0.402 / Variant D 0.401 / Logistic 0.395window first tested 2025-01-08: Variant A 0.417 / Variant B 0.409 / Variant C 0.413 / Variant D 0.414 / Logistic 0.408window first tested 2025-01-22: Variant A 0.410 / Variant B 0.403 / Variant C 0.407 / Variant D 0.407 / Logistic 0.400window first tested 2025-02-03: Variant A 0.412 / Variant B 0.404 / Variant C 0.409 / Variant D 0.408 / Logistic 0.402window first tested 2025-02-13: Variant A 0.413 / Variant B 0.404 / Variant C 0.409 / Variant D 0.407 / Logistic 0.401window first tested 2025-02-26: Variant A 0.410 / Variant B 0.401 / Variant C 0.405 / Variant D 0.404 / Logistic 0.396window first tested 2025-03-10: Variant A 0.404 / Variant B 0.397 / Variant C 0.402 / Variant D 0.400 / Logistic 0.391window first tested 2025-03-20: Variant A 0.393 / Variant B 0.390 / Variant C 0.392 / Variant D 0.391 / Logistic 0.379window first tested 2025-04-01: Variant A 0.379 / Variant B 0.378 / Variant C 0.381 / Variant D 0.378 / Logistic 0.366window first tested 2025-04-11: Variant A 0.350 / Variant B 0.372 / Variant C 0.364 / Variant D 0.355 / Logistic 0.361window first tested 2025-04-24: Variant A 0.352 / Variant B 0.374 / Variant C 0.365 / Variant D 0.356 / Logistic 0.351window first tested 2025-05-06: Variant A 0.353 / Variant B 0.377 / Variant C 0.365 / Variant D 0.359 / Logistic 0.350window first tested 2025-05-16: Variant A 0.352 / Variant B 0.373 / Variant C 0.365 / Variant D 0.359 / Logistic 0.350window first tested 2025-05-29: Variant A 0.354 / Variant B 0.373 / Variant C 0.366 / Variant D 0.359 / Logistic 0.353window first tested 2025-07-02: Variant A 0.360 / Variant B 0.377 / Variant C 0.372 / Variant D 0.365 / Logistic 0.357window first tested 2025-07-15: Variant A 0.364 / Variant B 0.381 / Variant C 0.375 / Variant D 0.369 / Logistic 0.361window first tested 2025-07-25: Variant A 0.372 / Variant B 0.380 / Variant C 0.376 / Variant D 0.374 / Logistic 0.358window first tested 2025-08-06: Variant A 0.378 / Variant B 0.375 / Variant C 0.381 / Variant D 0.382 / Logistic 0.360window first tested 2025-08-18: Variant A 0.372 / Variant B 0.368 / Variant C 0.374 / Variant D 0.375 / Logistic 0.359window first tested 2025-08-28: Variant A 0.363 / Variant B 0.361 / Variant C 0.366 / Variant D 0.368 / Logistic 0.352window first tested 2025-09-10: Variant A 0.358 / Variant B 0.359 / Variant C 0.362 / Variant D 0.364 / Logistic 0.350window first tested 2025-09-22: Variant A 0.355 / Variant B 0.356 / Variant C 0.359 / Variant D 0.363 / Logistic 0.347window first tested 2025-10-02: Variant A 0.350 / Variant B 0.350 / Variant C 0.352 / Variant D 0.356 / Logistic 0.343window first tested 2025-10-14: Variant A 0.350 / Variant B 0.347 / Variant C 0.347 / Variant D 0.354 / Logistic 0.340window first tested 2025-10-24: Variant A 0.349 / Variant B 0.341 / Variant C 0.343 / Variant D 0.351 / Logistic 0.341window first tested 2025-11-05: Variant A 0.351 / Variant B 0.342 / Variant C 0.345 / Variant D 0.354 / Logistic 0.344window first tested 2025-11-17: Variant A 0.352 / Variant B 0.340 / Variant C 0.344 / Variant D 0.355 / Logistic 0.344window first tested 2025-11-28: Variant A 0.353 / Variant B 0.337 / Variant C 0.342 / Variant D 0.354 / Logistic 0.341window first tested 2025-12-10: Variant A 0.347 / Variant B 0.333 / Variant C 0.338 / Variant D 0.347 / Logistic 0.333window first tested 2025-12-22: Variant A 0.342 / Variant B 0.330 / Variant C 0.338 / Variant D 0.341 / Logistic 0.330window first tested 2026-01-05: Variant A 0.336 / Variant B 0.327 / Variant C 0.335 / Variant D 0.338 / Logistic 0.331window first tested 2026-01-15: Variant A 0.334 / Variant B 0.329 / Variant C 0.334 / Variant D 0.334 / Logistic 0.329window first tested 2026-01-28: Variant A 0.341 / Variant B 0.335 / Variant C 0.340 / Variant D 0.340 / Logistic 0.333window first tested 2026-02-09: Variant A 0.336 / Variant B 0.340 / Variant C 0.341 / Variant D 0.338window first tested 2026-02-20: Variant A 0.341 / Variant B 0.347 / Variant C 0.347 / Variant D 0.344window first tested 2026-03-04: Variant A 0.343 / Variant B 0.348 / Variant C 0.348 / Variant D 0.347window first tested 2026-03-16: Variant A 0.342 / Variant B 0.346 / Variant C 0.343 / Variant D 0.346window first tested 2026-03-26: Variant A 0.348 / Variant B 0.348 / Variant C 0.347 / Variant D 0.351window first tested 2026-04-08: Variant A 0.356 / Variant B 0.359 / Variant C 0.355 / Variant D 0.362window first tested 2026-04-20: Variant A 0.355 / Variant B 0.361 / Variant C 0.358 / Variant D 0.363window first tested 2026-04-30: Variant A 0.352 / Variant B 0.358 / Variant C 0.355 / Variant D 0.359window first tested 2026-05-12: Variant A 0.358 / Variant B 0.357 / Variant C 0.358 / Variant D 0.362window first tested 2026-05-22: Variant A 0.366 / Variant B 0.366 / Variant C 0.368 / Variant D 0.370window first tested 2026-06-04: Variant A 0.372 / Variant B 0.373 / Variant C 0.376 / Variant D 0.379window first tested 2026-06-16: Variant A 0.385 / Variant B 0.387 / Variant C 0.390 / Variant D 0.390window first tested 2026-06-29: Variant A 0.388 / Variant B 0.387 / Variant C 0.392 / Variant D 0.392window first tested 2026-07-10: Variant A 0.384 / Variant B 0.380 / Variant C 0.389 / Variant D 0.386window first tested 2026-07-22: Variant A 0.385 / Variant B 0.379 / Variant C 0.391 / Variant D 0.388 / Path-summary 0.371window first tested 2026-08-03: Variant A 0.389 / Variant B 0.384 / Variant C 0.394 / Variant D 0.392 / Path-summary 0.384window first tested 2026-08-13: Variant A 0.383 / Variant B 0.377 / Variant C 0.389 / Variant D 0.386 / Path-summary 0.385window first tested 2026-08-25: Variant A 0.379 / Variant B 0.371 / Variant C 0.383 / Variant D 0.381 / Path-summary 0.383window first tested 2026-09-04: Variant A 0.366 / Variant B 0.357 / Variant C 0.369 / Variant D 0.367 / Path-summary 0.370window first tested 2026-09-17: Variant A 0.357 / Variant B 0.349 / Variant C 0.361 / Variant D 0.359 / Path-summary 0.365window first tested 2026-09-29: Variant A 0.355 / Variant B 0.348 / Variant C 0.359 / Variant D 0.355 / Path-summary 0.367window first tested 2026-10-09: Variant A 0.353 / Variant B 0.348 / Variant C 0.357 / Variant D 0.354 / Path-summary 0.366window first tested 2026-10-20: Variant A 0.356 / Variant B 0.350 / Variant C 0.359 / Variant D 0.356 / Path-summary 0.369Logistic: 0.336 for the window first tested 2026-02-05 (751 first test dates on the ledger)Path-summary: 0.369 for the window first tested 2026-10-20 (65 first test dates on the ledger)Variant D: 0.356 for the window first tested 2026-10-20 (928 first test dates on the ledger)Variant C: 0.359 for the window first tested 2026-10-20 (928 first test dates on the ledger)Variant B: 0.350 for the window first tested 2026-10-20 (928 first test dates on the ledger)Variant A: 0.356 for the window first tested 2026-10-20 (928 first test dates on the ledger)
Variant AVariant BVariant CVariant DPath-summaryLogistic
One line per ensemble member: precision at a 1% false-positive budget, 60-window rolling mean, appended every night when the models retrain. The newest member’s line is short because its history is short. The logistic line ends at the windows first tested in early February 2026. The nightly retrains, running since July, picked up the walk from there and do not log the logistic’s own score, though it still votes in the ensemble every day.
Raw market datavendor flatfiles, per minuteData preparation11 automated stepsNeural ensemblesix members, prob-mean (predictions averaged)Intraday signalsfired in real time, timestampedMachine gradingcode, unattendedThe public taperebuilt nightly, numbers locked in
No human step between the data and the tape, and no manual edits. The one regrade, on Aug 21, 2026, is documented below. The loop runs every night: the models retrain on yesterday’s data, and the tape re-posts by morning.
now reading Oct 21, 2026 / 168 graded / 53 hit / +$111.20 on paper
01

The daily run

One segment per graded trading day, newest first. The strip runs in sequence, so a losing day stays on the tape as the next segment. Eight sessions have no graded record; the methodology below lists them.

Oct 21, 2026Wed
168 graded · 53 hit · 32%
−$1,348.45 net to date
+$111.20
Oct 20, 2026Tue
222 graded · 83 hit · 37%
−$1,459.65 net to date
+$254.26
Oct 19, 2026Mon
182 graded · 69 hit · 38%
−$1,713.91 net to date
+$163.22
Oct 16, 2026Fri
187 graded · 62 hit · 33%
−$1,877.13 net to date
−$534.30
Oct 15, 2026Thu
237 graded · 108 hit · 46%
−$1,342.83 net to date
+$119.75
Oct 14, 2026Wed
237 graded · 75 hit · 32%
−$1,462.58 net to date
−$323.98
Oct 13, 2026Tue
168 graded · 56 hit · 33%
−$1,138.60 net to date
−$128.98
Oct 12, 2026Mon
158 graded · 51 hit · 32%
−$1,009.62 net to date
+$33.43
Oct 9, 2026Fri
196 graded · 68 hit · 35%
−$1,043.05 net to date
+$74.40
Oct 8, 2026Thu
236 graded · 71 hit · 30%
−$1,117.45 net to date
+$20.53
Oct 7, 2026Wed
181 graded · 47 hit · 26%
−$1,137.98 net to date
−$155.43
Oct 6, 2026Tue
206 graded · 65 hit · 32%
−$982.55 net to date
+$13.60
Oct 5, 2026Mon
162 graded · 54 hit · 33%
−$996.15 net to date
+$152.28
Oct 2, 2026Fri
171 graded · 56 hit · 33%
−$1,148.43 net to date
−$168.70
Oct 1, 2026Thu
184 graded · 62 hit · 34%
−$979.73 net to date
+$167.13
Sep 30, 2026Wed
155 graded · 61 hit · 39%
−$1,146.86 net to date
−$123.51
Sep 29, 2026Tue
201 graded · 66 hit · 33%
−$1,023.35 net to date
−$80.14
Sep 28, 2026Mon
131 graded · 41 hit · 31%
−$943.21 net to date
−$120.43
Sep 25, 2026Fri
147 graded · 60 hit · 41%
−$822.78 net to date
+$7.29
Sep 24, 2026Thu
192 graded · 70 hit · 36%
−$830.07 net to date
+$146.86
data through Oct 21, 2026 · re-drawn nightlyJul 14: 20 hits of 44 graded (45.5%), +$173.26Jul 14: 24 misses of 44 graded45%Jul 14Jul 15: 43 hits of 131 graded (32.8%), −$165.10Jul 15: 88 misses of 131 graded33%Jul 16: 28 hits of 114 graded (24.6%), −$269.95Jul 16: 86 misses of 114 graded25%Jul 17: 29 hits of 74 graded (39.2%), −$99.44Jul 17: 45 misses of 74 graded39%Jul 20: 30 hits of 86 graded (34.9%), +$133.04Jul 20: 56 misses of 86 graded35%Jul 21: 28 hits of 84 graded (33.3%), −$25.08Jul 21: 56 misses of 84 graded33%Jul 22: 50 hits of 90 graded (55.6%), −$163.80Jul 22: 40 misses of 90 graded56%Jul 23: 29 hits of 82 graded (35.4%), −$122.37Jul 23: 53 misses of 82 graded35%Jul 24: 69 hits of 192 graded (35.9%), +$105.68Jul 24: 123 misses of 192 graded36%Jul 24Jul 27: 38 hits of 167 graded (22.8%), −$77.34Jul 27: 129 misses of 167 graded23%Jul 28: 135 hits of 253 graded (53.4%), +$602.79Jul 28: 118 misses of 253 graded53%Jul 29: 72 hits of 244 graded (29.5%), −$630.22Jul 29: 172 misses of 244 graded30%Jul 30: 93 hits of 249 graded (37.4%), +$656.04Jul 30: 156 misses of 249 graded37%Jul 31: 97 hits of 301 graded (32.2%), −$830.64Jul 31: 204 misses of 301 graded32%Aug 4: 58 hits of 198 graded (29.3%), −$63.28Aug 4: 140 misses of 198 graded29%Aug 5: 26 hits of 86 graded (30.2%), −$79.47Aug 5: 60 misses of 86 graded30%Aug 6: 94 hits of 264 graded (35.6%), +$120.05Aug 6: 170 misses of 264 graded36%Aug 6Aug 7: 104 hits of 329 graded (31.6%), −$16.74Aug 7: 225 misses of 329 graded32%Aug 10: 100 hits of 261 graded (38.3%), −$21.76Aug 10: 161 misses of 261 graded38%Aug 11: 61 hits of 198 graded (30.8%), −$112.73Aug 11: 137 misses of 198 graded31%Aug 12: 71 hits of 219 graded (32.4%), −$101.42Aug 12: 148 misses of 219 graded32%Aug 13: 65 hits of 235 graded (27.7%), −$158.14Aug 13: 170 misses of 235 graded28%Aug 14: 54 hits of 231 graded (23.4%), −$210.73Aug 14: 177 misses of 231 graded23%Aug 17: 63 hits of 195 graded (32.3%), −$10.27Aug 17: 132 misses of 195 graded32%Aug 18: 83 hits of 223 graded (37.2%), +$83.12Aug 18: 140 misses of 223 graded37%Aug 18Aug 19: 98 hits of 267 graded (36.7%), −$60.25Aug 19: 169 misses of 267 graded37%Aug 20: 75 hits of 218 graded (34.4%), +$52.77Aug 20: 143 misses of 218 graded34%Aug 21: 82 hits of 252 graded (32.5%), +$168.89Aug 21: 170 misses of 252 graded33%Aug 24: 64 hits of 228 graded (28.1%), +$140.96Aug 24: 164 misses of 228 graded28%Aug 26: 66 hits of 195 graded (33.9%), +$123.66Aug 26: 129 misses of 195 graded34%Aug 27: 59 hits of 226 graded (26.1%), −$111.98Aug 27: 167 misses of 226 graded26%Aug 28: 72 hits of 205 graded (35.1%), −$136.97Aug 28: 133 misses of 205 graded35%Sep 9: 55 hits of 195 graded (28.2%), −$51.79Sep 9: 140 misses of 195 graded28%Sep 9Sep 10: 53 hits of 176 graded (30.1%), −$28.64Sep 10: 123 misses of 176 graded30%Sep 11: 61 hits of 182 graded (33.5%), −$32.77Sep 11: 121 misses of 182 graded34%Sep 14: 48 hits of 144 graded (33.3%), +$30.81Sep 14: 96 misses of 144 graded33%Sep 15: 58 hits of 200 graded (29.0%), +$71.08Sep 15: 142 misses of 200 graded29%Sep 16: 114 hits of 235 graded (48.5%), +$230.46Sep 16: 121 misses of 235 graded49%Sep 17: 66 hits of 179 graded (36.9%), −$157.85Sep 17: 113 misses of 179 graded37%Sep 18: 54 hits of 179 graded (30.2%), −$172.04Sep 18: 125 misses of 179 graded30%Sep 21: 78 hits of 198 graded (39.4%), +$236.24Sep 21: 120 misses of 198 graded39%Sep 21Sep 22: 59 hits of 170 graded (34.7%), −$71.59Sep 22: 111 misses of 170 graded35%Sep 23: 67 hits of 168 graded (39.9%), +$76.58Sep 23: 101 misses of 168 graded40%Sep 24: 70 hits of 192 graded (36.5%), +$146.86Sep 24: 122 misses of 192 graded36%Sep 25: 60 hits of 147 graded (40.8%), +$7.29Sep 25: 87 misses of 147 graded41%Sep 28: 41 hits of 131 graded (31.3%), −$120.43Sep 28: 90 misses of 131 graded31%Sep 29: 66 hits of 201 graded (32.8%), −$80.14Sep 29: 135 misses of 201 graded33%Sep 30: 61 hits of 155 graded (39.4%), −$123.51Sep 30: 94 misses of 155 graded39%Oct 1: 62 hits of 184 graded (33.7%), +$167.13Oct 1: 122 misses of 184 graded34%Oct 1Oct 2: 56 hits of 171 graded (32.8%), −$168.70Oct 2: 115 misses of 171 graded33%Oct 5: 54 hits of 162 graded (33.3%), +$152.28Oct 5: 108 misses of 162 graded33%Oct 6: 65 hits of 206 graded (31.6%), +$13.60Oct 6: 141 misses of 206 graded32%Oct 7: 47 hits of 181 graded (26.0%), −$155.43Oct 7: 134 misses of 181 graded26%Oct 8: 71 hits of 236 graded (30.1%), +$20.53Oct 8: 165 misses of 236 graded30%Oct 9: 68 hits of 196 graded (34.7%), +$74.40Oct 9: 128 misses of 196 graded35%Oct 12: 51 hits of 158 graded (32.3%), +$33.43Oct 12: 107 misses of 158 graded32%Oct 13: 56 hits of 168 graded (33.3%), −$128.98Oct 13: 112 misses of 168 graded33%Oct 13Oct 14: 75 hits of 237 graded (31.6%), −$323.98Oct 14: 162 misses of 237 graded32%Oct 15: 108 hits of 237 graded (45.6%), +$119.75Oct 15: 129 misses of 237 graded46%Oct 16: 62 hits of 187 graded (33.2%), −$534.30Oct 16: 125 misses of 187 graded33%Oct 19: 69 hits of 182 graded (37.9%), +$163.22Oct 19: 113 misses of 182 graded38%Oct 20: 83 hits of 222 graded (37.4%), +$254.26Oct 20: 139 misses of 222 graded37%Oct 21: 53 hits of 168 graded (31.6%), +$111.20Oct 21: 115 misses of 168 graded32%Oct 21
Signals graded per trading day, oldest first, with that day's hit rate above the bar.
showing 20 of 63 days / newest first
02

Summary: the record so far

Cumulative output of the grader since the tape started. Regenerated nightly by the job that posts this page; no figure here is typed by a person.

01
11,888
signals graded
02
34.0%
target-hit rate
4,047 of 11,888
03
63
trading days on the tape
04
+0.46%
median return per signal
05
−$1,348.45
cumulative P&L, paper
at fixed trade sizes
06
27
sessions regraded offline
on Aug 21, 2026; no manual edits since
data through Oct 21, 2026 · re-drawn nightly−$1,500−$1k−$500$0Jul 14: day +$173.26, cumulative +$173.26Jul 14: day +$173.26, cumulative +$173.26Jul 15: day −$165.10, cumulative +$8.16Jul 15: day −$165.10, cumulative +$8.16Jul 16: day −$269.95, cumulative −$261.79Jul 16: day −$269.95, cumulative −$261.79Jul 17: day −$99.44, cumulative −$361.23Jul 17: day −$99.44, cumulative −$361.23Jul 20: day +$133.04, cumulative −$228.19Jul 20: day +$133.04, cumulative −$228.19Jul 21: day −$25.08, cumulative −$253.27Jul 21: day −$25.08, cumulative −$253.27Jul 22: day −$163.80, cumulative −$417.07Jul 22: day −$163.80, cumulative −$417.07Jul 23: day −$122.37, cumulative −$539.44Jul 23: day −$122.37, cumulative −$539.44Jul 24: day +$105.68, cumulative −$433.76Jul 24: day +$105.68, cumulative −$433.76Jul 27: day −$77.34, cumulative −$511.10Jul 27: day −$77.34, cumulative −$511.10Jul 28: day +$602.79, cumulative +$91.69Jul 28: day +$602.79, cumulative +$91.69Jul 29: day −$630.22, cumulative −$538.53Jul 29: day −$630.22, cumulative −$538.53Jul 30: day +$656.04, cumulative +$117.51Jul 30: day +$656.04, cumulative +$117.51Jul 31: day −$830.64, cumulative −$713.13Jul 31: day −$830.64, cumulative −$713.13Aug 4: day −$63.28, cumulative −$776.41Aug 4: day −$63.28, cumulative −$776.41Aug 5: day −$79.47, cumulative −$855.88Aug 5: day −$79.47, cumulative −$855.88Aug 6: day +$120.05, cumulative −$735.83Aug 6: day +$120.05, cumulative −$735.83Aug 7: day −$16.74, cumulative −$752.57Aug 7: day −$16.74, cumulative −$752.57Aug 10: day −$21.76, cumulative −$774.33Aug 10: day −$21.76, cumulative −$774.33Aug 11: day −$112.73, cumulative −$887.06Aug 11: day −$112.73, cumulative −$887.06Aug 12: day −$101.42, cumulative −$988.48Aug 12: day −$101.42, cumulative −$988.48Aug 13: day −$158.14, cumulative −$1,146.62Aug 13: day −$158.14, cumulative −$1,146.62Aug 14: day −$210.73, cumulative −$1,357.35Aug 14: day −$210.73, cumulative −$1,357.35Aug 17: day −$10.27, cumulative −$1,367.62Aug 17: day −$10.27, cumulative −$1,367.62Aug 18: day +$83.12, cumulative −$1,284.50Aug 18: day +$83.12, cumulative −$1,284.50Aug 19: day −$60.25, cumulative −$1,344.75Aug 19: day −$60.25, cumulative −$1,344.75Aug 20: day +$52.77, cumulative −$1,291.98Aug 20: day +$52.77, cumulative −$1,291.98Aug 21: day +$168.89, cumulative −$1,123.09Aug 21: day +$168.89, cumulative −$1,123.09Aug 24: day +$140.96, cumulative −$982.13Aug 24: day +$140.96, cumulative −$982.13Aug 26: day +$123.66, cumulative −$858.47Aug 26: day +$123.66, cumulative −$858.47Aug 27: day −$111.98, cumulative −$970.45Aug 27: day −$111.98, cumulative −$970.45Aug 28: day −$136.97, cumulative −$1,107.42Aug 28: day −$136.97, cumulative −$1,107.42Sep 9: day −$51.79, cumulative −$1,159.21Sep 9: day −$51.79, cumulative −$1,159.21Sep 10: day −$28.64, cumulative −$1,187.85Sep 10: day −$28.64, cumulative −$1,187.85Sep 11: day −$32.77, cumulative −$1,220.62Sep 11: day −$32.77, cumulative −$1,220.62Sep 14: day +$30.81, cumulative −$1,189.81Sep 14: day +$30.81, cumulative −$1,189.81Sep 15: day +$71.08, cumulative −$1,118.73Sep 15: day +$71.08, cumulative −$1,118.73Sep 16: day +$230.46, cumulative −$888.27Sep 16: day +$230.46, cumulative −$888.27Sep 17: day −$157.85, cumulative −$1,046.12Sep 17: day −$157.85, cumulative −$1,046.12Sep 18: day −$172.04, cumulative −$1,218.16Sep 18: day −$172.04, cumulative −$1,218.16Sep 21: day +$236.24, cumulative −$981.92Sep 21: day +$236.24, cumulative −$981.92Sep 22: day −$71.59, cumulative −$1,053.51Sep 22: day −$71.59, cumulative −$1,053.51Sep 23: day +$76.58, cumulative −$976.93Sep 23: day +$76.58, cumulative −$976.93Sep 24: day +$146.86, cumulative −$830.07Sep 24: day +$146.86, cumulative −$830.07Sep 25: day +$7.29, cumulative −$822.78Sep 25: day +$7.29, cumulative −$822.78Sep 28: day −$120.43, cumulative −$943.21Sep 28: day −$120.43, cumulative −$943.21Sep 29: day −$80.14, cumulative −$1,023.35Sep 29: day −$80.14, cumulative −$1,023.35Sep 30: day −$123.51, cumulative −$1,146.86Sep 30: day −$123.51, cumulative −$1,146.86Oct 1: day +$167.13, cumulative −$979.73Oct 1: day +$167.13, cumulative −$979.73Oct 2: day −$168.70, cumulative −$1,148.43Oct 2: day −$168.70, cumulative −$1,148.43Oct 5: day +$152.28, cumulative −$996.15Oct 5: day +$152.28, cumulative −$996.15Oct 6: day +$13.60, cumulative −$982.55Oct 6: day +$13.60, cumulative −$982.55Oct 7: day −$155.43, cumulative −$1,137.98Oct 7: day −$155.43, cumulative −$1,137.98Oct 8: day +$20.53, cumulative −$1,117.45Oct 8: day +$20.53, cumulative −$1,117.45Oct 9: day +$74.40, cumulative −$1,043.05Oct 9: day +$74.40, cumulative −$1,043.05Oct 12: day +$33.43, cumulative −$1,009.62Oct 12: day +$33.43, cumulative −$1,009.62Oct 13: day −$128.98, cumulative −$1,138.60Oct 13: day −$128.98, cumulative −$1,138.60Oct 14: day −$323.98, cumulative −$1,462.58Oct 14: day −$323.98, cumulative −$1,462.58Oct 15: day +$119.75, cumulative −$1,342.83Oct 15: day +$119.75, cumulative −$1,342.83Oct 16: day −$534.30, cumulative −$1,877.13Oct 16: day −$534.30, cumulative −$1,877.13Oct 19: day +$163.22, cumulative −$1,713.91Oct 19: day +$163.22, cumulative −$1,713.91Oct 20: day +$254.26, cumulative −$1,459.65Oct 20: day +$254.26, cumulative −$1,459.65Oct 21: day +$111.20, cumulative −$1,348.45Oct 21: day +$111.20, cumulative −$1,348.45Jul 14Jul 24Aug 6Aug 18Sep 9Sep 21Oct 1Oct 13Oct 21−$1,348.45
Cumulative paper profit and loss (P&L), day by day. The last point is the same figure as the tile above it, to the cent.
03

By price band

The same tape, split by the share price of the stock each signal named. Every band swings off the same centerline, so a losing band is drawn exactly like a winning one: same line, same scale, opposite direction.

sub-$1
4,230 graded · 1,544 hit · 36.5%
+$192.66
$1-5
5,141 graded · 1,716 hit · 33.4%
−$529.76
$5-20
2,082 graded · 648 hit · 31.1%
−$804.56
$20+
435 graded · 139 hit · 31.9%
−$206.79
all bands
11,888 graded · 4,047 hit · 34.0%
−$1,348.45

3 of 4 price bands show a net paper loss. They sit on the same centerline as the winner, drawn at the same scale. What did not work is posted with everything else.

methodology

How a signal becomes a mark on the tape

01

What is a Signal?

During the session the system reads the market minute by minute and fires a signal in real time when it predicts a stock is about to move +5%. A signal is one such call, on one stock, on one day. This page reports outcomes only: no model internals, no ranking, no live feed. Nothing here is actionable today; the newest gradeable day is the most recent trading session. A signal that cannot be entered under the policy is skipped and not graded.

02

The fixed grading policy

Every signal is graded by one rule set, the policy, fixed before the day is graded and never changed: a +5% profit target, a two-hour window (120 minutes of market time), exit at the end of the two-hour window if the target is not reached, or at the session's last bar if that comes first, no stop-loss, and entries only after 10:30 ET. A signal that reaches +5% inside the window is a hit; one that runs out of time is a miss.

03

Paper results at fixed sizes

The dollar figures are paper results: what the policy would have made or lost if each signal had been traded at a fixed dollar size set in advance by rule, by confidence tier and in whole shares. No real money traded these figures, and they are not fund performance. That is why every dollar figure on this page carries the label 'at fixed trade sizes' (the industry term is notional sizing).

04

Published the next morning (T+1)

The system fires its signals in real time during the session; nothing is published in real time. Each day's trading is graded the following morning and posted here by an automated job, one trading day after the fact, which is what 'T+1' means wherever it appears on this page. There is no same-day or live signal here.

05

Sessions with no record

8 trading sessions since the tape opened have no graded record, and the strip goes straight past them. Aug 3, 2026: no signals were recorded for that day. Aug 25, 2026: the nightly job was killed before it graded the session, and it could not be recovered. Aug 31, 2026, Sep 1, 2026, Sep 2, 2026, Sep 3, 2026, Sep 4, 2026, Sep 8, 2026 (6 sessions): a storage outage, and the signals were never recorded. Nothing was removed. These sessions were never graded.

06

Correction: the price data behind these grades

On August 19, 2026 we found a defect in the price data behind these grades. The grader had been reading price columns that a pipeline step meant for model inputs had clipped (winsorized: extreme values pulled in to a limit), so some paper trades registered a +5% target touch that did not happen in the market. On August 21, 2026, 27 sessions (July 14, 2026 to August 20, 2026) were regraded offline against the vendor's raw minute bars (per-minute price records straight from our market data provider): the same signals, the same rules, the same sizes; only the price data changed. Every session since is graded on vendor minute bars by the nightly job. No manual edits since August 21, 2026.

07

Grading source, session by session

Grading source per session: vendor minute bars for 30 of 63 sessions (from September 10, 2026); each of those morning reports names the bar file it was graded on, with the file's checksum (a bar-source field); 33 sessions predate the field: 27 are certified by the August 21, 2026 regrade manifest and 6 were graded on vendor minute bars by the nightly job before the field existed.

The reasoning behind this record is published as letters, by Verbatim. subscribe →